Mix Down Altitude Based Wind Gust Forecasting Model
Mentor 1
Jonathan Kahl
Start Date
28-4-2023 12:00 AM
Description
A wind gust is fast moving air found at high elevations that is mixed down to ground level. Wind gusts are important factors of a weather forecast because they cause damages to structures and in turn can affect the economy negatively. Forecasting these wind gusts is a challenging task for operational weather forecasters. Also, evaluating the accuracy of gust forecasts is extremely difficult because wind gusts are only reported during the last 10 minutes of the hour, rather than the entire hour. This causes 50 minutes worth of wind gusts during each hour to go unreported. Previously, researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee derived a database that recorded the true surface wind gust across all minutes of the hour between 2010-2017 at many stations across the country. In this project, we are using this database to create a new wind gust forecasting model. We analyze various weather types across the country to determine the typical mix down altitude of wind gusts for each weather type. Knowledge of these mix down altitudes was used to create wind gust forecasting models for each weather type. Using these models, simulations were performed which produced skillful wind gust forecasts. By utilizing this information a forecaster can predict more accurate wind gusts, which can improve the accuracy of weather related risk assessment.
Mix Down Altitude Based Wind Gust Forecasting Model
A wind gust is fast moving air found at high elevations that is mixed down to ground level. Wind gusts are important factors of a weather forecast because they cause damages to structures and in turn can affect the economy negatively. Forecasting these wind gusts is a challenging task for operational weather forecasters. Also, evaluating the accuracy of gust forecasts is extremely difficult because wind gusts are only reported during the last 10 minutes of the hour, rather than the entire hour. This causes 50 minutes worth of wind gusts during each hour to go unreported. Previously, researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee derived a database that recorded the true surface wind gust across all minutes of the hour between 2010-2017 at many stations across the country. In this project, we are using this database to create a new wind gust forecasting model. We analyze various weather types across the country to determine the typical mix down altitude of wind gusts for each weather type. Knowledge of these mix down altitudes was used to create wind gust forecasting models for each weather type. Using these models, simulations were performed which produced skillful wind gust forecasts. By utilizing this information a forecaster can predict more accurate wind gusts, which can improve the accuracy of weather related risk assessment.
